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Signal #145
◐ SETTLED (7d)

Signal #145Polkadot Core Activity Surge (CAS)

Polkadot has closed the 7-day window and remains open for the 30-day replay.

Polkadot Core Activity Surge detected. Dev-velocity is 3.9344x above baseline. Current 24h core velocity: 8 commits; 30D mean: 2.0333; z-score: 3.2207.

Current CAS Score
0.7×
0.7× vs 30d baseline
−25.82% vs baseline
PRICE AT T0
Project$0.76
BTC$62,933.00
PRICE T+7
Project$0.96
BTC$62,933.00
7-DAY OUTCOME
+26.67% absolute return
+2.92% alpha vs BTC

The 7-day window is closed, so the first outcome is locked and visible.

30-DAY WINDOW — Still tracking — final outcome closes in 6 days.
CAS history chart
Jun 11, 2026Jul 30, 2026Sep 08, 2026
Recent Core Commits
Signal History
IDTypeCreatedStatusDetail
#151Core Activity Surge (CAS)Aug 26, 2026, 20:10 UTC◐ SETTLED (7d)Open →
#145Core Activity Surge (CAS)Aug 14, 2026, 20:10 UTC◐ SETTLED (7d)Open →
Auto narrative

Polkadot has logged 18 core commits over the past 7 days, a 0.7× multiple of its 30-day baseline. The last CAS surge fired on Aug 26, 2026, 20:10 UTC. The outcome is still being tracked.

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