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Signal #93
✕ INVALIDATEDSignal #93 — Celestia (TIA) Core Activity Surge (CAS)
Invalidation note: Pre-anchor era: T0 price was not captured at signal creation time. We do not retroactively backfill prices because that would introduce look-ahead bias into the alpha track record.
Celestia (TIA) Core Activity Surge detected. Dev-velocity is 15x above baseline. Current 24h core velocity: 1 commits; 30D mean: 0.07; z-score: 3.74.
Current CAS Score
2.9×
2.9× vs 30d baseline
+185.71% vs baseline
REASON
Pre-anchor era: T0 price was not captured at signal creation time. We do not retroactively backfill prices because that would introduce look-ahead bias into the alpha track record.
We invalidated this signal because the conditions that generated it were later compromised. We publish invalidations because cherry-picking is the cheapest way to fake a track record.
CAS history chart
Recent Core Commits
Signal History
| ID | Type | Created | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #150 | Core Activity Surge (CAS) | Aug 26, 2026, 20:10 UTC | ◐ SETTLED (7d) | Open → |
| #141 | Core Activity Surge (CAS) | Aug 05, 2026, 16:10 UTC | ● SETTLED (30d) | Open → |
| #130 | Core Activity Surge (CAS) | Jul 28, 2026, 16:10 UTC | ● SETTLED (30d) | Open → |
| #121 | Core Activity Surge (CAS) | Jul 14, 2026, 24:10 UTC | ● SETTLED (30d) | Open → |
| #111 | Core Activity Surge (CAS) | Jun 08, 2026, 16:10 UTC | ● SETTLED (30d) | Open → |
| #96 | Core Activity Surge (CAS) | Apr 28, 2026, 16:10 UTC | ● SETTLED (30d) | Open → |
| #93 | Core Activity Surge (CAS) | Apr 22, 2026, 16:10 UTC | ✕ INVALIDATED | Open → |
| #91 | Core Activity Surge (CAS) | Apr 21, 2026, 14:45 UTC | ✕ INVALIDATED | Open → |
Auto narrative
Celestia (TIA) has logged 2 core commits over the past 7 days, a 2.9× multiple of its 30-day baseline. The last CAS surge fired on Aug 26, 2026, 20:10 UTC. The outcome is still being tracked.